Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi is set to undertake a significant official visit to the Russia and the Republic of Austria from 08-10 July 2024, marking pivotal diplomatic engagements on multiple fronts.

In Moscow, Prime Minister Modi will participate in the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit, hosted by President Vladimir Putin. The summit aims to bolster the longstanding bilateral ties between India and Russia across various sectors. Discussions will encompass a broad spectrum of issues of mutual interest, spanning regional dynamics to global affairs. The Modi-Putin talks are expected to focus on the rise in India-Russia trade due to India’s import of oil, smoothing out payment issues arising from Western sanctions, building on previous conversations on the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route, and concluding the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS) agreement that will pave the way for more defence exchanges.

The visit will be Modi’s first visit to Moscow since 2015 and marks a return to the decades-old annual India-Russia summit format. Experts assert that on various fronts relation between Russia and India sufferred a drift, and such visit would reverse the wave. 

Decline in the strong relation with Russia

Experts assert that New Delhi had earlier shown some sort of tilt towards the west and the India Russia relation was in fact undergoing a managed decline. This is demonstrated by New Delhi downgrading its interactions with Moscow on several fronts, including bilateral summits and multilateral forums, economic engagement, and defense cooperation. Recent incidence of Modi not attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meet in which Russia is also a member apart from China, and earlier event of Putin not attending the G-20 held in India are examples of less-engagement, experts argue.  

However, the India-Russia relations is facing complicating circumstances amid roles of China, the US and Eurpoe.  As Russia becomes increasingly beholden to China, concerns may have aparently grown in New Delhi about Moscow’s eroding neutrality in future Chinese-Indian hostilities. At the same time, comments of Donald Trump against NATO and his soft-tones on Russia has complicated situation further and made the future of US stance on Russia unpredicatable. If U.S. policy toward Russia were to shift under a future Trump administration, Washington might become more accommodating of New Delhi’s ties with Moscow. 

In such circumstances, the present visit of the PM to Russia may be seen a normaising effort. At the same time, India will prefer to strike balance in relation with Russia since there has been existing negative air for Russia in the eyes of US and the Europe which India cannot ignore. Experts believe that India will regain its non-alignment doctrine which was seen slightly shifted towards west earlier. 

The upcoming India-Russia meeting at Moscow will be a must watch event.